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Democracy Fund:
Western vision to restore U.S. influence in the Middle Est.
The administration faced Obama tidal wave of criticism for the lack of strategic vision clear in dealing with the wave of Arab revolutions, where continued U.S. administration to follow the same approach, which relies on blind eye to the internal policies of the Arab countries, even if they violated the principles of democracy and human rights, as long as they take into account the interests of the U.S. in the region.
Therefore acknowledged by many analysts that the deal humble and confused by the U.S. administration towards the wave of Arab revolutions, which led her to commit strategic errors in dealing with the countries of the Arab Spring; has led to a reduction of American influence in the region in an unprecedented way, which made critics of U.S. foreign policy find the phrase "leading from behind" an appropriate description of Obama's policy toward the Arab region at the moment.
In this context feet Shadi Hamid and Peter Mandeville, an expert of foreign policy at the center of Brookings, in a study of two titled "Re-United States to the Middle East," patrolling "Washington Koratli Washington quarterly" issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a thesis on a new strategy from which the United States is to regain its influence and strength in the Middle East, as well as the vision to deal with the serious issue of political reform in the region.
Foundations of American influence in the Middle East
Hamid argue and Mandeville at the beginning of their study that the U.S. influence has not completely disappeared from the Arab region, and that the foundations on which the American influence could play a prominent role in the restoration of that influence.
Where the authors refer to the statements of the U.S. administration during the revolutions of Egypt and Tunisia, which confirmed the lack of U.S. involvement in any way in this wave of protests. Was not accompanied by such statements serious steps towards supporting the democratization process in these countries, or even to provide financial aid compatible with the size of the economic crisis; but followed Washington in silence the growing trend authoritarian government Mursi in Egypt, and then Washington expressed some criticism humble towards the overthrow of President Morsi team, that Foreign Minister John Kerry that Egypt's generals have regained the democratic process, which the authors find it contradictory with campaigns of repression practiced against the opposition camp.
The authors argue that international actors have played influential roles on the path of the wave of Arab Spring in the countries of the region, with the exception of Tunisia. Therefore it despite waning U.S. influence in the region in terms of objectivity, however, that not all Arab countries, according to the deal that fact. For example, despite the diminished ability of the U.S. administration to put pressure on decision-makers in Egypt; however, there is no substitute for the Egyptian army for spare parts and equipment for the U.S. military, and the Egyptian-American relations have a strategic asset and a multitude accumulation over the past decades.
As well as it is when you talk about the Iranian threat to the Gulf states, we can say that the Gulf states rely on the United States in the maintenance of national security more than U.S. dependence on Gulf countries to import oil, especially in light of the expansion of the United States in the production of domestic energy, and in light of the increasing adoption of the Gulf states on the United States to obtain sophisticated weapons, and the coordination of regional missile defense. Thus, we can say that as long as the Iranian threat exists to the Gulf states, U.S. influence will remain strongly present there.
A new strategy to restore U.S. influence in the region
Offers Hamid and Mandeville in this part thesis on the development of a new strategy aimed at restoring U.S. influence in the Middle East, launched the strategy of Muslim well-established, namely that Arab attitudes toward the United States is characterized by a low degree of flexibility, which means that American foreign policy towards the region must initiatives that go beyond limited and well-intentioned policies patching, so that it can bring about a shift in Arab attitudes toward the United States.
It is based strategy to establish a grant fund multilateral economic geared for the purpose of political reform processes Multilateral Endowment for Reform (MER), with initial funding of up to $ 5 billion, then 20 billion dollars over ten years, a huge sum compared to the financial allocations for the year 2014 to fund incentives Middle East MENA, which amounted to 580 million dollars, and this is the Multilateral Fund of linking economic assistance huge conduct genuine political reform to strengthen the values of democracy in the Middle East region, which is unique of its kind, will reshape the political map of the area again.
The authors point out that the moral motive is not the only reason behind the creation of this fund. It has proved a wave of Arab revolutions that authoritarian regimes are not stable over the long term, and thus is a reliable ally, unlike democratic systems - although that has suffered in the early stages - they will enjoy long-term stability to become an influential ally in the region.
The main thrust of this proposed model is that the international community led by the United States will finance the processes of democratization in the Middle East through economic aid, a huge excess of aid commitments the U.S. list, and the nature of the multilateral will be key to his success, in terms of reducing the level of the financial burden of direct U.S. United, as well as to avoid perceptions that may indicate Washington's desire to form a political future of the region according to their will. The authors confirms that Europe will be a key partner and contributor to this fund, will also encourage some regional parties such as Turkey and Qatar to participate in this project.
Here it should be noted the need to avoid policies of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and other major international financial institutions, linking economic aid to the process of restructuring the economy of the receiving state assistance, but should focus on political reform essentially a puppet. With this aid should be targeted to all democratically elected governments, whether led by Islamists or secularists. It also should not be allowed to States contributing to the Fund to impose the agenda of their own political interests on the countries that receive aid.
The authors argue that the decline of American influence in the region has created a state of strategic vacuum in the region, the Gulf states were allowed to move to fill this void. Thus, the establishment of this fund will have benefits beyond the issue of the promotion of democracy, because it will re-establish the U.S. role in European and Middle East, with giving him the institutional factor.
The Fund will need in the short term to inject massive financial aid facing those that started the Gulf states channeled to the countries of the Arab spring, has committed to Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait to support Egypt in the wake of July 2013 for $ 12 billion dollars in order to strengthen the position of the current political system a desire to restore the situation to what before January 2011., of course, must be used by shareholders in the fund their political influence in the reduction of competition and conflict that could arise between the Fund and the regional parties in the light of the multiplicity of funding streams economic aid to countries in the region.
Non-traditional mechanisms for the consolidation of democracy in the Middle East
The authors went to the need to recognize that the task of this fund is not easy, for example: You can not Jordan or Algeria to become the short-term bastions of democracy. The Fund should focus initially on those countries that have the political administration paid public support towards the democratization process.
He considered benign and Mandeville that the Fund has great opportunities in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Morocco - Egypt and Syria at a later stage - to achieve effective results in the democratization process. Which may encourage the countries allied to the United States in the region, such as Jordan, to begin the process of comprehensive political reform before the outbreak of the crisis and domestic protests are difficult to control.
With the need for continuous and permanent part of the Gulf states of the United States in support of the security aspect to it, it must be linked to the United States that support a gradual process of political reform undertaken by the Gulf states. This is a step in the transition towards a form of "security-for-oil" which goes GCC-US relations and jurisprudence for several decades, to a form of "security versus reform."
The authors refer to the need to overcome the Fund during the submission of supporting those activities for the promotion of traditional American democracy, such as the training of political parties, and strengthen the role of civil society. Should focus on providing direct support for aspects of the real to strengthen democracy, such as the reform of the civil service, and justice sector reform, anti-corruption initiatives, and the creation of a comprehensive change in the bureaucratic structures of the state, including the security agencies and the judiciary, and the sectors of media.
It is also important to recognize that management and the organization of such an entity would be a high degree of complexity, especially in light of the case of questioning that will prevail countries in the region towards the idea, because of the track record of Western countries in economic aid conditionality. And overcome those doubts is a huge challenge to this idea commensurate with its ambition, and with the historical transformations undergone by the Arab region.
To that end, we must take hold conviction among the U.S. administration the need to change its approach to the traditional in dealing with the Middle East countries, an approach that was intentionally turned a blind eye for the excesses of the Arab governments with regard to issues of democracy and human rights, as long as those governments are working on the maintenance of U.S. interests in the region.
In conclusion, addresses and Mandeville Hamid told U.S. Secretary of State "Hillary Clinton": "The biggest source of instability in the Middle East today, it is not demanding change, but refused to change." They point out that this argument applies to the U.S. role in the currently troubled Middle East. Vsndouk economic aid for reform can not happen to change abruptly in the path of American policy toward the Middle East, but will provide a strong impetus towards a new strategic approach, may help the United States to return to its traditional role Calfaal the most influential in the region, in addition to rejuvenate the democratic reform process initiated by the wave of Arab revolutions.
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